On this week’s show, Karl discussed why the stock market bounced back and the opportunities that lie ahead next week.
Hey, everybody. Welcome to the podcast. This is the Eggerss Report. It’s your investing playbook. Thanks for joining me. We appreciate it, as always. My name is Karl Eggerss. I am your host. We’re going to talk about a lot of stuff that happened this past week.
It was another busy week in the financial markets, but before we do, please go to our website, which is eggersscapital.com. That’s E-G-G-E-R-S-S capital.com. We have made a few changes on there. We will continue to do so, especially on our blog page, so if you go to eggersscapital.com, you will see on the right side, it says, blog or financial education, either one.
You click on that. It takes you right there and you’ll see it’s organized a little differently and we’ve got it laid out now to where if it’s an article we’ve written, it says, read more. If it’s an audio, whether it’s the podcast or an interview I do on the radio, it says, listen. If we do some video, it says, watch now.
You’re going to have a lot of different ways to get our information. We’re going to start doing more video. In fact, if you want to see the video that we put out this week on Social Security, just go right to the blog page and you’ll see my ugly mug on there. That’s your cue that you can click on it because this is watch now and the discussion is, deciding when to take your social security benefits. When to claim them and some things to think about before you do so.
Now, of course, every day we help people do that, but if people are not hiring us to do that for them and go through the numbers and really calculate it, we at least want to give the public some things to think about before they make that decision.
That blog page, we will still be doing a few more tweaks on there, but a little redesign on there. As I mentioned, we will be doing more videos from time-to-time as well. A couple of things there.
If you’d like to call us. 210-526-0057. 210-526-0057 is our telephone number. We have a lot of information to get to today as I mentioned. It was really a busy week. We came in on Monday and that Turkish lira that we dealt with all the week prior continued on Monday. Again, the usual suspects fell because of it.
International’s getting hit. Currency’s getting hit. Commodities’ getting hit and so forth. The money started to shift from those assets into things such as consumer staples and rets and utilities. Kind of that safety trade that we’ve seen the last few years when things get a little dicey.
Tuesday, we had the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. It is near an all-time high, which was last hit in the early 1980s, guys. 1980s. Again, we’re getting people saying, “It’s doom and gloom.” And, then we’re getting people saying, “Hey man, this thing is really good out there.”
From everybody I talked to, which there’s a lot of business owners, they say things are very, very good. Again, will it continue is the bigger question. Wednesday, market down a lot, but bounced back. Really, the tariff talk, to me, is the bigger item pushing the markets around right now than Turkey.
Turkey is not a, I don’t want to say it’s not a small item, and it’s something that will need to be dealt with. I think what really got the market in a sour mood the middle of the week was primarily because Turkey’s not backing down. Right? Their president’s not backing down.
But, having said that, they did get some financial help this week. Qatar pledged $15,000,000,000 worth of direct investment into the country. The Turkish lira bounced back about 7 or 8%. That kind of put a little bandaid on it, but in Turkey also, they are doing some other things. They enacted some rules to make it harder to short their currency. They slapped higher taxes on imports of US goods ranging from cars to food.
Again, the White House, by the way, said, “They’re going to have these tariffs on Turkish goods even if the pastor is freed,” which is kind of the root of some of this. Busy day on Wednesday.
Thursday, everything kind of changed. China blinked, as I would say. We know this is a negotiating situation that’s been going on between the US and a lot of different countries. It’s been interesting because a few months ago, China said, “Yes, we will reduce the trade deficit,” and everything started to look okay again.
Then, it was like all bets were off. War of words, back-and-forth, and President Trump came out and said, “Hey, you know what? The stock market and investors are voting. Look, China’s stock market is down over 20% in a bear market and the US is barely off at all. The market’s speaking and there may be some truth to that.”
We heard about some in-fighting within the Chinese government. Lo-and-behold, Thursday, we hear that China will send a delegation to the United States later in August to resume trade talks that had broken down a few months ago and the markets went way up on that. The DOW was up around 400 points on Thursday.
Are they capitulating? Again, it’s very clear to me that the market cares about tariffs much more than Turkey. Both of those issues have been keeping the market down, but tariffs are clearly the bigger issue in my opinion.
Gold had a really rough day on Thursday and the gold miners. They had a really rough week. We’re going to talk about that in just a minute and they’ve been really quiet lately until recently, but we saw some panic this week.
Now, one thing that’s interesting that we are starting to see by the way, is you know how everybody’s talking about the flattening of the US yield curve. In other words, long term interest rates in the US are just about the same rate as what you would get on short term rates.
In other words, the rates are the same, whether it’s two year, 10 year, 30 year. They’re not much different and that’s not normal and people believe that could be a sign that the economy’s starting to weaken.
Well, what’s interesting about that is if you look at Chinese bonds, which China’s supposed to be collapsing, right? Their yield curve is very, very steep and steepening a lot since July. So, what’s going on there? Is that signaling that the Chinese economy’s going to be better than ours in the next few months? Something to watch.
We actually bought a Chinese stock in our dividend plus portfolio this week that we feel is a strong, strong company, beaten down, high dividend, tons of cash, one of the largest companies in China. That’s something that again, there’s blood in the streets, as Warren Buffet would like to say. There was, so we went in and bought that.
Friday, what we saw was that the leading index, which is really one of our favorite indicators in terms of looking at what’s going on with the economy, was supposed to go up in July. 0.4%, and it went up 0.6%. It’s risen now 26 straight months.
Now, what does this mean? Well, there’s a chart and I’ll probably do an article on it next week, maybe Monday or Tuesday, but if you put this leading index, which comes out monthly. If you put it on top of the stock market, it reveals a couple of things.
Number one, it’s very correlated to the stock market and it’s at a new all-time high and moving up, so that’s a good sign. But, number two, every time we’ve had a recession, this indicator has rolled over months in advance of that recession and we’re not seeing it roll over.
I’m no genius, but all I can tell you is if I go back in history and this indicator has never rolled over without having a recession afterwards, then the fact that it’s going straight up, would tell me in the next few months, we’re not going to have a recession.
Now, does that mean we’re not going to have a recession a year from now? No, but it does tell me in the next few months, I don’t see a recession because this indicator’s still moving up. That was a very good sign this week.
We also saw something interesting or heard something interesting. Early Friday morning, President Trump tweeted out that, and I’ll read it for you, if I can find it here. He says, “In speaking with some of the world’s top business leaders, I asked, what is it that it that would make business (and then, in parentheses, he put jobs), even better in the US?”
On executive business leader told him, “Stop quarterly reporting and go to a six month system.” President Trump said, “That would allow greater flexibility and save money. I have asked the SEC to study.” This is interesting. As you know, public companies report their earnings to us every quarter.
What’s interesting is they have a conference call and the analysts ask all kinds of questions and they talk to them and they do “channel checks” and they come up with a number and they say, “Okay, company. This is the consensus. We believe that you’re going to earn $2.50 next quarter.”
What happens is, the company somewhat feels paralyzed because maybe they want to spend some extra money this quarter for something that’s going to help them longer term, but they know it’s going to affect their earnings in the short term and guess what happens? They come in with earnings that are $2.40 and their stock gets killed and they’re trying to explain it.
It’s, “What have you done for me lately?” Eventually, the CEO gets ousted. The point is of that quarterly earnings put pressure on the CEOs to think about the short term as opposed to the longer term. As I invest in companies, I look for CEOs that are thinking about long term and making long term decisions, not trying to manage the quarterly earnings every single quarter.
Because there’s easy ways to do that, which is, they just go and start buying back stock. Right? When they buy back stock, it reduces the number of shares outstanding, which increases the earnings per share and they get blamed for that. Maybe that’s true, that they’re doing that because they don’t have a choice to keep their jobs.
This is not a bad idea. Anything that can allow investors and analysts and everybody else to focus on the long term, is a good thing, in our opinion at Eggerss Capital Management. That was interesting though.
By the way, we saw some follow through on Friday, not because of that, but I think just that some of this tariff overhang was lifted a little bit, that maybe there’s going to be some talks. There’s going to be some real progress. We heard Larry Kudlow, I believe on Thursday say, “Look, we’re very close to a deal with Mexico.” And we know that President Trump is going to do everything he can to lock in some of these deals, before the midterms, right? Because if they don’t get locked in, we will see more volatility coming in my opinion. So all this stuff has happened and the markets seems, investors seem encouraged this week.
Now, for the week as I mentioned, there are some things that did really well. There’s some things that did really poorly. The S&P 500 actually finished up about a half a percent for the week. The Dow Jones up about 1.4% for the week. The NASDAQ was down on the week. And this is interesting, because if you look at things like Netflix, Netflix is now down 25%, from its June high, pretty much from its July high. So in about a month, down 25%.
We know Facebook of course, which gapped down, bounced a little bit, is still down about 20% from its all-time high. Are we starting to see the FANG stocks, F-A-N-G. Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google and Apple. F-A-A-N-G. Are we starting to see the rotation happen? Maybe. There’s some arguments out there, that these stocks are still undervalued. Don’t spit your coffee out and start chuckling because their theory is, “Look. These companies are fast growing. And because they’re so fast growing, they deserve a higher premium.” That is very true.
Now, if you look at them with traditional metrics, PE ratios, etc., they look extremely expensive. But if you look at them based on some other metrics, some of them aren’t any different than they were a few years ago. It’s all based on, will their growth continue to be as fast as its been in the past? If it is, the stocks continue higher. If they get any little bump in the road, like Facebook did, bam, they get hit hard.
And remember, the last few weeks, what are the two stocks out of the FAANG stocks, that I said looked most vulnerable? Facebook and Netflix. And they are both down 20, to 25%. Not bad companies, but again, what are you paying for in terms of the price you’re paying for the profits you’re receiving, the assets etc. And they both look expensive to me, and still do by the way. That was another big item this week. When we look at, kind of, some of the outliers this week, by the way, we also saw semi connectors falling on Friday.
The things that led this week, were things like consumer Staples, Reaps Telecom, utilities, pharmaceuticals. Telecom by the way, looks very interesting. Really nice chart if you’re looking at Telecom. Banks, those were all the things that are up two, three, four percent this week.
On the downside, the gold miners, Bitcoin, oil and gas, aluminum, metals and mining, anything energy related, steel, silver, foreign markets, you get my drift? It was tariff, the dollar. If you understand where tariffs are going and you understand where the dollar is going, a lot of other stuff seems to fall into place. But let’s talk about the gold miners for a minute. We own gold miners in our aggressive portfolio, so it’s not a good week for that particular investment. Now it’s a small portion, very small, but we actually added to it on Friday.
The gold miners right now are to us based on some things we were looking at yesterday they are the most oversold, they have ever been based on the basket of them, ever. So when your in that position, even if it’s a trade, you take advantage of that. And that’s what we did on Friday, gold minders bounced back a little bit. Still we’re down about nine to ten percent for the week. But we’re up two and a half to three percent on Friday. Very, very oversold.
And what’s interesting about it is, some people are saying, “Well, gold’s under pressure because cryptocurrencies are the new gold.” That could be something in the future but it certainly isn’t now ’cause cryptocurrencies are getting wacked. So that money is not coming out of gold and going into cryptocurrencies.
It all has to do with the dollar and we have been surprised in the last, really most of 2018, how smooth and low volatility the gold miners were. For the longest time, very, very low volatility until this week. Now what’s interesting is, if you go back and look at a chart of the gold miners, go back to late 2015, you will see that they were bouncing, bouncing, bouncing, just moving sideways, they broke some technical support in early 2016, went down and the junior miners from early 2016 until mid-2016 went up 200%. And you probably don’t even remember that. 200%.
Now just the regular gold miners, which is the GDX, we own the GDXJ, GDX went up 150% during that time. What happened this week was kind of similar. We’ve been bouncing around on a floor really since early 2017. So about a year and nine months, we have been bouncing, bouncing, bouncing on these technical levels and it broke through this week and when it did, it caused a whole cascading down where volume picked up, it went down real capitulation, so you always have to ask yourself, Are you a forced seller? Am I going to be a forced seller when others out there are may be forced to sell and the answer is no. I want to buy what other people are selling sometimes because they’re in a panic.
And again, this is where it comes into play, if you have half your money in gold, or gold miners, you had a bad, bad week this week. If you have a handful of percent, three or four percent of a strategy which we do, which is very little, we can afford to add to it and lower our cost basis and take advantage of a rubber band snap back, which we think we will have over the next few weeks.
So very interesting to watch but again, keep in mind, this is all about the dollar, right? The dollar has been on a roll and it’s because again, look around. What other currencies do people want to own right now in this kind of tumultuous situation. They’re flocking to the dollar. Will it continue? I don’t know. I think the dollar is over … it’s stretched to the upside. So I see that coming down and gold going back up over the short run.
So that was one of the big movers this week. Again, some of the things that were done as I mentioned, energy, oil broke some technical levels, silver got hit about three percent, steel stocks about 3 percent. Again, all of this stuff having to do with the tariffs. So as I mentioned, we still long term, really like international stocks quite a bit.
And keep in mind, this is something interesting, if the dollar stays at these levels, guess what’s going to start happening next quarter, the big US conglomerates are going to start saying, “Currencies in other countries are affecting our profits.” Remember these big US companies sell most of their produces outside the US in other currencies and when they bring the cash back, they have to convert it into expensive dollars, hurts their profits.
So let’s flip it around. If they’re getting hurt, who would benefit? Maybe European companies, Japanese companies, any foreign company has a weak currency in their big companies are going be reporting better profits because of their currency being weak. And that’s why secretly, most Americans should want a stable dollar but not a runaway strong dollar. And we always hear all the politicians say, “We want a strong dollar.” And that’s great for the stump. But at the end of the day, they really don’t want that because they know what a really strong dollar does to corporate profits for big conglomerates. And its no secret, also why, if you look at it, you look at the small caps verse large caps, small caps have been hanging in there, near their highs because they don’t have all that international exposure.
So let’s watch, that you should hope for some relieve in the dollar for it come back down. Let’s see how that plays out over the next few weeks. But again, we still from an investment stand point, not from a trading stand point, but from an investing standing point, we really like the international markets. Because there is fear out there and a lot of its unwarranted.
So again, how much do you have? It depends on your situation. Don’t go over board. Have a balance portfolio. But we still feel like people have way too little international. When you have about 70%, 75% of the world’s GDP is outside the United States, doesn’t it make sense to have your portfolio kind of mimic that? Most Americans though have this home bias where they have 90% of their money, 95 maybe 100% of their money inside the United States. So that was again, something that really is creating some opportunities there. So again, are you a forced seller or not?
I thought about having a segment and I could probably do this once a week, who got Amazoned this week? Is that a phrase? It’s a verb, amazoned? Amazon with an E-D on the end of it? Every week, somebody gets Amazoned. A few weeks ago, it was Walgreens, right? Amazon says, “We’re going get in the … we’re going to start selling drugs, pharmaceuticals. ” And Walgreens and CVS, they all started falling, right? Then it was all these companies, retailers, you name it. Amazon gets in the business, they kill the industry.
Well, Friday, the Amazon stock of the week is TiVo. Friday, Amazon comes on and says, “Ah, we’re thinking about making this box that’s going basically be a digital recorder that’s going complete with TiVo.” And what happened? TiVo’s stock went down about 4% like within just a few minutes.
And now this is, let me clarify that TiVo’s stock has been falling for some time now as you can imagine, given all the different options that people have, TiVo’s stock in 2016 about two years ago, was around $23 a share. It’s now at $12. So we’re talking a 50% drop in TiVo’s stock. So this nothing new but it’s just another nail in the coffin and it’s what Amazon is able to do, is crush people, industries if they want, very, very powerful company.
Now and remember, to me, several months ago Amazon signed a deal with Sears to have them install tires. And I wonder and I don’t even wonder, I think this is going to happen, is this just the beginning? Well Amazon keep doing this and will this really save retailers? If you can’t beat them, join them. Hey Amazon, there’s certain things you can’t do. Now Amazon could open a tire shop if they wanted to. But why not say, “Hey Amazon, you’re the best distributor of goods and services in the country, in the world. So let us do the stuff that you can’t do ’cause it’s too physical, right, in terms of putting tires on.” And that’s what they did.
And if you notice, too, you know Amazon leases a lot of buildings right now. And we actually own some investments, some of our clients do that is real estate that leases to Amazon. Great investments. Amazon doesn’t own a ton of buildings, they lease a lot of them. But will they eventually be the largest landowner? You know? Remember they … doing the deal with Whole Foods. So, it’s causing people in retail to really look around and go maybe we need to change the way we’re doing things.”
We don’t own … We took profits a week or so ago in Tractor Supply, I think, because I mentioned fabulous stock, severely undervalued when we bought it, made great money on it in our dividend plus portfolio, and we’ve moved on. But I’ve often wondered, and now I can kind of speak about this because we don’t own it but I’ve often wondered …
Why doesn’t Home Depot buy Tractor Supply? You know when you start thinking about what Amazon’s doing with Whole Foods, wouldn’t that work great for Home Depot? You know, Home Depot …
Tractor Supply is great brand loyalty. They sometimes are in rural areas where Home Depots are not. I know there is some overlap but there’s a lot of places there is not overlap and Home Depot could use the Tractor Supply’s as a distribution center similar to what Amazon is doing with Whole Foods and they fit. Right? They have the same type of stuff. So, I’ve often wondered why that has not been done. Just a thought about that, since we’re talking about retail.
Now, I wanted to finish the show by talking about something that most of you probably have not invested in. I did a speech on Thursday night to a group of real estate investors. This is all they do for the most part, probably fairly concentrated in real estate.
Of course, I was discussing, you know, even within real estate you can really diversify. I gave them an update on the economy, the stock market, with IC going on, the opportunities, but also talked about real estate since that was the group I was speaking to and kind of ways to diversify even within real estate.
You know, it’s not just about residential real estate in one city, it can be residential real estate in other cities. It can be about owning commercial real estate. It can be about flipping versus renting. How about carrying the notes, being the bank? Right. Owning a warehouse, a strip center, apartment complex, lots of ways to diversify within real estate.
But, I did get a question off that subject about private equity. Do we ever invest in private equity or our clients? And the answer is, yes, but very rarely because it’s not easy.
Now there’s several reasons why. Number one, they usually try to package it for folks that are accredited investors, meeting certain income and net worth thresholds. Because, unfortunately, the financial industry thinks that if you have a lot of money, you’re smart, and if you don’t have a lot of money, you’re stupid. Which is stupid in it of itself, right?
There’s lots of dumb people who have won the lottery and there’s lots of smart people who have had some breaks in life and things go against them and they don’t have as much money.
So, let’s put that aside, but their rules are what they are and so most private equity, number one, you don’t get to see a lot of deals, but as far as … Let’s talk about two things, and I see a lot of deals because I’m just in the middle of it. I know a lot of people that do private equity, I … Just I’ve always seen a lot of deals.
Some people want me to assess a particular investment, so that’s private equity and I’ll give them my feedback, and I don’t have anything to do with it. I’ve participated in some. I own some businesses, things of that nature, but for the average investor, how do you get private equity?
The reason I bring this up is, because there was an article written this week, and I’ll be honest I have not had the time to go through it with a fine tooth comb, but it’s describing why we’re not seeing as many public companies as we used to.
There used to be, I think, 8,000 public company … publicly traded. You can go invest in them. Now, I think that’s been cut in half or so. So why are we continuing to see this? Again he gives his reasons, I have not read the article thoroughly to go through it and understand why, but there are …
The point is there’s fewer and fewer companies traded. Volumes continuing to fall, and the companies that are being traded are getting larger and larger, right? We got a trillion dollar company, right? Apple’s a trillion dollar company.
So, as you invest in indexes especially you’re owning more and more of a few companies and bigger cap weighted companies as we’ve talked about, and you don’t own these other companies, so you’re getting less diversified than you used to be. It used to be that you could buy an index and really get diversified.
What’s funny is most people don’t know that the Wilshire 5000 isn’t 5000 companies, so it vacillates and it’s way off sometimes. Very interesting, but my point in telling you that is there’s less-and-less publicly traded companies, you should have the option if you want to invest in stocks or equity, to invest in private equity, which is just private companies, that aren’t traded on a public exchange.
Now they’re going to be less liquid, you’re going to really do your homework on them, et cetera. But it’s really no different than investing in a publicly traded company. It’s just publicly traded companies get these crazy valuations because it’s a popularity contest. Well, if you’ve ever gone to sell your business, they don’t give you 40 times your earnings and 60 times your earnings and 20 times your revenue, right?
They say, we’ll give you five times your earnings. Very different in the private world, because we’re really valuing businesses, but for whatever reason in the stock market, it doesn’t matter. It’s Amazon. They can have whatever valuation they want or Netflix.
But, shouldn’t you have more access to this stuff? I don’t see a lot of access. There’s some funds that we’ve seen that have attempted to put some private equity deals together. It’s a little sloppy because of when money’s coming in-and-out, but there are private equity funds. It’s just most of us don’t get to see them because they’re reserved for the uber-wealthy.
There are some sites and I don’t have all of them off the top of my head, but I will find them and maybe list them for you or talk about them in a future episode, but I do have some clients investing in some of these on a very small scale where you can essentially …
You have to be, again, accredited. You have to prove that you … You have to have somebody sign off that yes, you have the net worth to do this. You can put $1,000, $3,000, $5,000 in some of these private deals and kind of piggyback.
They’re really, the clients I see doing this are almost, it’s a lottery ticket. It’s what if this thing takes off and becomes the next x, y, z stock? I want in on it, but they’re willing to lose some that if it goes to zero, it’s not going to affect our life. That’s how most people are treating private equity, but I think there’s something in-between, but unfortunately, I don’t see a lot of great instruments that allow you to participate.
Now, there have been some private equity firms that have gone public, right? So, you say, “Well, I’ll just piggyback on them.” The problem is, you’re trying a stock. So, when the market’s going all catawampus, your stocks doing the same thing. It may have nothing to do with the actual value of the underlying companies that they own.
Again, I hope we see more evolution in this. I really want to see more things brought to market. We have seen in the last few years, better investments in the area, especially in commercial real estate, in corporate lending, being brought to the average john. Some of this you still have to go through an advisor, a registered investment advisor, like we are, because they just don’t want to talk to 1,000 different people.
They’d rather have one person to talk to, which is a financial advisor, and have us be the gatekeeper, so to speak, on which clients are appropriate, us doing the vetting of making sure it’s appropriate for the client and so forth.
But, the good thing about it is, more of these are becoming transparent. More of these are stripping away all these goofy commissions and all these incentives to sell these things and they’re being set up now for registered investment advisors like us that have access to them no differently than having access to an ETF or a mutual fund or a stock.
It allows our clients to be much more diversified than they would have been 15 years ago. Really, again diversify, because if there’s one thing we learned from the financial crisis, is that just because you own seven different stocks and five different mutual funds, you’re not diversified.
Everything went down in ’08, but if you did own some real estate, if you owned some mortgages that you were the bank, if you owned art, if you owned cars, if you owned land, right? All these things were ways to diversify away from the public markets.
Hopefully, people have learned their lesson, but I don’t think so. I still don’t believe so and the reason I say that is, because when I see portfolios, which I look at practically daily where somebody will show me their portfolio, want me to assess it, talk to them about their situation, it’s the same thing that would have been in there 10, 15 years ago.
Now, they’re different a little bit. More ETFs, but there’s no strategy assigned to it. It’s all public markets of things that are very correlated to the stock market. If the market goes down, they’re going down with it. Now, when the market’s good, like it has been, all these things are not a big deal, right?
You don’t need to diversify. You can earn just American public stocks and everything’s great, but do you own commodities? Do you own international stocks? Do you own private investments? Do you lend some of your money? Do you own some land? Some real estate? All those different things. Most people we see, do not.
We are moving more towards seeing that and that’s what we do. We really diversify people’s lives. We still do not see that. Private equity is one area I wish was more available to the average investor and it’s still not. That’s a long winded answer to what I told this gentleman that asked me that last night.
Anyways, if you have a question for me, Karl, K-A-R-L, at eggersscapital.com. Also, if you’d like a video request on any topic within reason, let me know. We will try to do a video on it in the future. We’ve got a lot of different videos we’re going to do.
If you’d like to call us for any reason, 210-526-0057. Again, eggersscapital.com. E-G-G-E-R-S-S capital.com. Don’t forget to like our stuff. It sounds like something from the fifth grade, but nowadays, like means a totally different thing, right? You’ve got to click a button, share it, all that kind of stuff.
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All right. Have a good weekend. I will see you right back here next week on the Eggerss Report. Your investing playbook.
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